(Cincinnati Bengals Vs Pittsburgh Steelers) It’s finally Week 1 of the NFL season, and Sports Illustrated is here to provide live analysis and updates all day long. Thursday’s matchup between the Bills and Rams provided fans with a spectacle worthy of a season opener: Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns in a 31–10 win over the reigning Super Bowl champions, sending a clear message that the Bills can live up to the hype surrounding them. (Buffalo entered the season as the betting favorite and at No. 1 in our MMQB power rankings, with six of eight first-place votes.)
And the action continues today—follow along with SI’s Conor Orr for live analysis all day long. Plus, an overview of Sunday’s slate, including a few key games to watch and some predictions from Albert Breer and Orr.
Who’s In, Out and Still Questionable
Checking your lineup every Sunday morning prior to kickoff is crucial. You want to start a complete, healthy lineup each and every week and a lot can happen in a few days… like top pick Christian McCaffrey cutting up his shin on a cleat in practice and briefly landing on the injury report.
The Dallas Cowboys’ futures also moved, after the team announced left tackle Tyron Smith will be out indefinitely with a torn left hamstring. Following that news, Caesars Sportsbook took a very respected bet on the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East and Philly promptly surpassed Dallas as the division favorite. It makes sense. The eight-time Pro Bowler has missed 20 games over the past two seasons and his absence has a direct impact on the Cowboys offense. Dallas averages .7 yards less per rush and .7 yards less per pass attempt without Smith. Their sack rate also increases from 4.2% to 6.2%.
|NFL Week 1 Live Analysis Update||Click Here|
Notable Line Moves (NFL Week 1 Live)
This is Exhibit A to the theory that not all line moves are created equal. The Chiefs opened as three-point road favorites during the summer. The market moved to four points. Then, last Monday morning, an extremely respected group bet on Kansas City and oddsmakers immediately moved the spread to six points. So, at first glance, a novice might casually notice a line move of three points and assume an overwhelming and steady amount of action on the Chiefs. However, it is really just a case of a couple of respected wagers.
In football betting parlance, four and five are considered “relatively dead numbers”. By comparison, 7.1% of games have been decided by exactly six points making it the third-most common margin. So, if a smart oddsmaker knows a team already has been bet from -3 to -4, and the sharpest of bettors backs them again, you do not waste your time moving it to -4.5, -5 or -5.5. Just get to -6 and see what happens.
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